Bitcoin Plunges Below $63,000 as Bear Market Continues

Bitcoin's recent bounce to $65,000 following the Iran peace deal has fizzled out, with the cryptocurrency now trading at around $63,000. According to Glassnode's weekly report, 95% of recent buyers remain underwater, indicating that the market is still in bear territory.

The peace deal led to a decline in WTI crude prices from $86 to $76 in just 48 hours, which drained the geopolitical risk premium that had been compressing Bitcoin for three weeks. However, despite recovering from its lows, Bitcoin remains 15% below the True Market Mean at $77,200.

Until price reclaims this level, the structural read of the market remains bearish. The Short-Term Holder MVRV, which measures whether recent buyers are in profit or loss, has recovered from 0.81 to 0.90 but still sits below the 1.0 breakeven threshold.

The implied cost basis for recent buyers is around $72,600, leaving them roughly 10% underwater on average. This means that until STH MVRV reclaims 1.0, this entire cohort represents overhead supply on every attempted recovery.