Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Still Elusive, Says CryptoQuant

A recent analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin may not have yet reached its bear market bottom. According to the study, the SOPR Ratio, which measures the profit spread between long-term holders and short-term holders, is currently at 0.9, well above the 0.55 floor that ended every prior cycle.

The SOPR Ratio has been a reliable indicator of Bitcoin's bear market bottoms, with the ratio compressing to around 0.5 marking the point where the profit gap between veterans and newcomers fully inverts. However, at its current level, long-term holders still hold a profit edge over newer entrants.

CryptoQuant also analyzed other indicators, including the Coinbase Premium, which has remained persistently negative, as well as weak open interest and declining NRPL moving average. While these signals are not strong enough to confirm a bottom on their own, they do contribute to the overall picture of a bear market structure that is still intact.

The analysis points out that previous bear market bottoms, such as those in 2015 and 2023, saw full inversion of the SOPR Ratio, with long-term holders selling at a loss and short-term holders barely profitable. However, the current market has not yet reached this point, and the ratio needs to compress considerably more before it can be considered a reliable indicator of a bottom.