Bitcoin Price Could Plummet to $24K in Worst-Case Scenario

Analyst Jesse Olson has outlined a worst-case technical scenario for Bitcoin that could send its price sharply lower in the event of a severe stock-market sell-off. The analyst's chart work suggests that if US equities undergo a macro downturn of roughly 50%, Bitcoin's price could fall toward $23,980.

The bearish case is not only technical, but also aligns with market indicators that have been signaling muted institutional participation in the crypto market. According to data from Coinbase and SoSoValue, the premium reading has been largely negative so far in 2026, indicating weaker professional accumulation. Additionally, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $4.68 billion in net outflows since May.

Institutional demand may be missing due to a 'permanent risk management logic' as described by Darkfost, an on-chain analyst. This means that institutions may not buy based on technical support signals alone and instead wait for confirmation of performance and stabilization in broader markets.