Solana Reversal Structure Builds Amid Rising Warning Metric

Solana's price has been under pressure for weeks, reflecting the broader weakness across the crypto market. The token is still down roughly 13% over the past month, but beneath the surface, a potential reversal structure is quietly building.

A bullish divergence on the chart has already triggered a rebound attempt, and long-term holders appear to be positioning for an extended recovery. This is evident from the Hodler Net Position Change metric, which tracks whether investors holding coins for at least 155 days are accumulating or distributing. Since the divergence appeared on March 1, this metric has strengthened noticeably, with long-term holders increasing their net position change by roughly 27% in just two days.

However, another metric is rising at the same time, which historically precedes corrections of roughly 7-10% in Solana's price. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric measures whether holders are sitting on unrealized profits or losses. Since February 23, Solana's short-term holder NUPL has risen from -0.71 to -0.49, a recovery of roughly 31%. This rising NUPL metric carries a warning, as history shows that it often precedes corrections in Solana's price.