Wintermute Sees Shift in Crypto-US Stock Correlation Amid Cautious Trading

A report by Wintermute has highlighted an interesting trend in the correlation between retail capital flows in the crypto market and the US stock market. According to the report, since the end of 2024, the correlation has shifted from positive to negative.

Data shows that while retail capital has been flowing into US stocks at record levels, overall trading activity in the crypto market has become more cautious. The total market capitalization of altcoins and retail activity have both declined simultaneously, with the BTC/NDX volatility ratio dropping below 2x in the first half of 2025.

The report suggests that the improvement of investment tools such as ETFs and the integration of cross-platform trading channels has made it more convenient for capital to switch between crypto assets and traditional stocks. As a result, Wintermute believes that the activity level of US stock retail trading is becoming an important leading indicator for observing trends in the crypto market.