Bitcoin has approached Fidelity's power law support line but lacks a catalyst to lift its price, according to Jurien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity. The current levels are considered an accumulation zone by Timmer, who notes that the absence of a clear catalyst is hindering the price from breaking through.
A power law support line is not a moving average or a psychological round number but represents a mathematical relationship where Bitcoin's price rises as a constant power of the time since its genesis. Fidelity has used this tool for more than a decade to gauge whether Bitcoin is undervalued relative to its network adoption trajectory.
The last two times Bitcoin visited the power law support, the bounce was ignited by either a sharp dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve or a surge in spot ETF inflows. Neither is visible right now, with rate cuts penciled in for late 2026 at the earliest and ETF flows having turned lukewarm.
Regulatory pressure is also adding to the downside risk, as traditional banking interests push to alter a landmark crypto bill just days before a Senate vote. This has created fresh uncertainty around market structure rules in the United States.