Bitcoin Price May Be Nearing Final Sell-Off Before Long-Term Bottom Forms

Market analysts have been warning about a potential final sell-off in Bitcoin, but what does it mean for the cryptocurrency's price? According to Aaron Dishner, a leading market analyst, Bitcoin's price may be nearing its final sell-off before a longer-term bottom forms. He bases his prediction on historical data and converging technical signals.

The framework used by Dishner centers around a comparison with May 2022, when the cryptocurrency experienced a significant drop in value. On the weekly BTC/USDT chart, he outlines a sequence mirroring prior bear market endings: a major high, a liquidation-driven drop, a failed relief rally forming a bear flag, and a breakdown into new lows.

Dishner projects a downside target around $35,000-$40,000, aligning with historical drawdowns of 70% to 75% from all-time highs. Previous cycles support this range: the 2013-2015 decline lasted about 59 weeks with an 87% drawdown; the 2017-2018 cycle spanned roughly a year with an 84% decline; and the 2021-2022 bear phase retraced around 77% over 54 weeks.

Moreover, weekly RSI has reached deeply oversold territory, levels historically associated with capitulation events such as late 2018 and the COVID crash. While not at the most extreme historical lows, RSI is within the zone that previously preceded large downside wicks and sharp sell-offs.