Murphy Sees Weak Rebound in Bitcoin as Price Targets $64,000-$68,000

A Chinese crypto analyst named Murphy believes that Bitcoin's recent upswing is only a 'weak rebound' and not a strong reversal of the bear market. According to his assessment, the short-term target range for Bitcoin is between $64,000 and $68,000, with the $70,000 level being the ceiling for this rebound.

Murphy notes that the average cost for current short-term investors in Bitcoin is concentrated in the $64,000-$68,000 range, particularly among those holding BTC for less than a month and less than three months. As a result, the price needs to make repeated attempts to break through this region.

The analyst divides the expected recovery into three main levels: the critical resistances at $64,000 and $68,000 related to the cost zone for short-term investors, and the $70,000 level corresponding to the realized price (STH-RP) of short-term investors. STH-RP is considered the bull-bear dividing line in terms of market sentiment.

In his baseline scenario, Murphy expects a weak recovery in Bitcoin, with the price potentially rising to the $64,000-$68,000 range. However, he notes that a surprise surge above $70,000 could be considered a strong rebound. Options market data also supports the levels highlighted by the analyst.

Market makers are in a positive Gamma position around $62,000, which may lead to volatility being suppressed in this region through hedging transactions. Following a possible upward breakout, the next positive Gamma zone is located in the $66,000-$68,000 range, indicating that this region could also act as a significant resistance line.