Altcoin Market Recovery Hopes Rise in March Based on Technical Signals

Data from CryptoQuant shows that only 5% of altcoins listed on Binance are trading above their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This indicates a broad weakness in the altcoin market. However, historical patterns suggest that this ratio typically stays below 15% for no more than five months before rebounding.

Several analysts have identified early positive signals on the OTHERS/BTC chart, which tracks total altcoin market capitalization excluding Bitcoin against BTC. The MACD indicator has crossed above the signal line and formed its first green histogram bar since early 2024, similar to signs that appeared before major altcoin rallies in 2017 and 2020.

Despite these signals, investor expectations for an altcoin season remain weak. Capital continues to concentrate mainly on Bitcoin, leaving altcoins relatively neglected on centralized exchanges. A true altcoin season may require sustained capital rotation and fresh inflows into the market.