Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) is testing a technical setup on its monthly chart that eerily resembles the one preceding its 99% collapse during the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s.
The head-and-shoulders pattern, which forms when the price creates three peaks with the middle peak being steeper than the other two, has been forming since March 2024 and is currently testing a neckline support at $100-$105. A decisive move below it would confirm the bearish setup and open the door to a deeper, multi-year correction toward the measured target of around $20, down approximately 80% from current levels.
This pattern looks similar to the head-and-shoulders top MSTR formed during the dot-com bubble era. Back then, the stock broke below a comparable neckline setup before collapsing by more than 99% from its peak in two years.
Strategy's cash reserve has shrunk by 38% since the start of 2026, and its yearly dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled to $1.2 billion, according to CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno. This has increased dilution risk for MSTR common shareholders as the company uses cash to pay dividends on its preferred stocks.
The company holds 847,363 BTC, acquired at an average price of about $75,650 per coin, higher than today's BTC price of around $62,600. Selling Bitcoin during a downturn could lock in losses and weaken its long-running accumulation narrative.