Arthur Hayes Links Trump-Iran War and AI Spending to Bullish Crypto Market

Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, has made a compelling case for a bullish crypto market. In his latest essay, he links the Trump-Iran war to a broader bull-market thesis in crypto. According to Hayes, the conflict exposed weaknesses in global supply chains, reserve management, energy security, and national infrastructure planning.

Hayes argues that the US attack on Iran showed how many countries still depend on U.S.-protected trade routes for key commodities. He believes that disruptions around energy, fertilizer, and food shipments could force governments to rethink their investment priorities. This, in turn, may lead to a shift of capital away from dollar-based financial assets towards physical infrastructure and essential reserves.

Hayes also connects the war narrative to the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure. He notes that both the US and China treat AI leadership as a national security priority and are backing heavy spending on data centers, electricity generation, chips, and AI-related infrastructure. This may lead to increased credit creation, which could fuel further investment in crypto markets.

Hayes predicts that Bitcoin's price may rise towards $126K if liquidity continues to increase. He argues that call option sellers may be forced to cover positions if the price breaks above $90K. While his predictions are speculative and not guaranteed, they highlight the potential for a bullish market in crypto.