US Macro Events This Week: Key Releases Could Impact Bitcoin Prices

This week's macroeconomic events in the US could significantly impact Bitcoin prices.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Wednesday will reveal how officials debated tariff inflation, oil prices, and a weakening labor market. Traders will scan for hawkish language around persistent inflation versus dovish acknowledgment of growth risks.

BTC has historically shown a consistent sell-the-news pattern around FOMC events, with post-event declines of 5-10% common as positioning unwound.

The sequence continues with the February PCE inflation and Q4 GDP data on Thursday. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge carries consensus forecasts of 0.4% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year for core PCE. A hotter print above 3.0-3.1% year-over-year would reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative, tightening financial conditions further.

The third estimate of Q4 GDP carries a consensus of 0.7% annualized, already sharply revised down from the advance reading of 1.4% and Q3's strong 4.4%. Further weakness would signal an economy losing momentum, which paradoxically supports crypto by raising expectations for Fed easing.

The most anticipated print is the March CPI on Friday, with consensus forecasts a headline jump to 3.3% year-over-year and 1.0% month-over-month. A core CPI above 0.4% would collapse the transitory narrative, pushing rate cuts out of 2026 entirely.