Data from Polymarket suggests that December 2026 has a high probability of being Bitcoin's best month, at 16% likelihood.
This is in line with historical patterns where the fourth quarter tends to see significant gains for Bitcoin. Since 2013, average Q4 returns have ranged between 77% and 85%, far exceeding other quarters.
The data also indicates that traders are positioning for a delayed but potentially strong upside phase, with momentum building from September and peaking toward year-end. This aligns with broader cryptocurrency market cycles, especially in post-halving years, where year-end rallies are common for Bitcoin.