Galaxy Research Cuts Odds on CLARITY Act's Passage Amid Timing Concerns

The CLARITY Act's passage into law is facing new challenges as Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn cuts his odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% just weeks ago. The bill, which aims to reform crypto market structure, cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a 15-9 vote but still lacks a floor date.

The main issue is time: the Senate is heading into its August recess at the end of July, and there are very few usable legislative weeks left. The chamber recently lost a week to a fight over an anti-weaponization fund and failed to advance a reauthorization of Section 702 of FISA, which lapses on June 12.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune would need to schedule floor time in July for the bill to pass, but it still needs floor debate, an amendment process, and reconciliation with a Senate Agriculture text before any House action. Democratic votes are also uncertain, as Senate Democrats led by Ruben Gallego have said ethics provisions are a precondition for their support.

The bill's passage is now seen as unlikely before September, but Galaxy Research still expects it to pass in 2026 due to its bipartisan support and the need for crypto market reforms. However, action after September would run into midterm election dynamics, when floor time gets scarce and members are focused on campaigns.