Bitcoin FOMC Meeting Risk Reaches Boiling Point

Bitcoin's impressive streak of consecutive daily gains has led to a market momentum that is difficult to ignore. However, data from Two Prime indicates that this strength may be short-lived. Historically, FOMC meetings have had a negative impact on Bitcoin prices, with the cryptocurrency posting losses in the 48 hours following seven out of eight meetings in 2025.

The upcoming decision by the Federal Reserve is not expected to deliver any surprises, as markets are pricing a near certainty that rates will remain steady. The futures market is also only anticipating a single rate cut by the end of the year, reinforcing a 'higher for longer' backdrop. This lack of expectation for change may lead to a sell-off in Bitcoin prices.

Additionally, macro risks such as the escalating conflict in the Middle East and high oil prices are putting upward pressure on CPI inflation numbers. This may limit the Fed's flexibility to ease policy, further complicating the picture for investors. With Bitcoin entering the meeting in a buoyant state, the risk of a 'sell the news' reaction is heightened.