Clarity Act 2026: Policy Debate Gains Momentum in US Crypto Sector

The Clarity Act has emerged as a key policy debate in the US crypto sector, with lawmakers attempting to finalize rules that could reshape oversight of digital assets nationwide.

According to Polymarket data, there is a 68% probability that the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026. This estimate increased after Senate and White House advisers reportedly aligned on stablecoin provisions.

The bill has already passed the House of Representatives with bipartisan support but stalled in the Senate due to disagreements over stablecoin yield specifications. Senators, including Cynthia Lummis, have worked with industry representatives to refine the draft.

Industry leaders estimate an 80% chance of passage by April, but some warn that election-year priorities could slow legislative focus. If the bill passes without issues, markets are likely to react positively, reducing risk premiums and potentially attracting institutional capital.