Polymarket Accounts Net Over $1M in Suspicious Bets Ahead of US-Iran Strikes

A recent analysis by blockchain analytics company Bubblemaps has revealed a suspicious pattern of betting activity on Polymarket, a platform for prediction markets.

The six accounts identified by Bubblemaps were established and received their initial funding within a 24-hour window preceding the US military strikes against Iran. Each of these accounts purchased affirmative positions on the Polymarket question 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?'

One account, which acquired 560,680 affirmative shares at approximately 10.8 cents per unit, invested around $61,000 and generated profits surpassing $493,000.

The investigation has raised concerns about information asymmetry in the prediction markets. This is not an isolated incident, as Polymarket has faced similar allegations of insider trading in the past. US Representative Ritchie Torres has put forward legislation to prevent federal officials from trading prediction market contracts connected to government policy using confidential information.

The cumulative trading activity on the 'US strikes Iran' contract reached approximately $529 million since December 2025, with a significant portion of this volume occurring just before the actual strikes.