Bitcoin Cycle Theory: Will Bottom Land in Q4 2026?

Bitcoin's price has been underperforming compared to other assets like gold and equities, which are trading near record highs. The Fear & Greed Index recently printed a low reading of 15, its lowest in 2026. According to an anonymous 4chan poster, the Bitcoin cycle is playing out with mathematical precision.

The 4-year cycle model projected a top on October 6, 2025, which is consistent with the actual peak. If the symmetry holds, the bottom would land in Q4 2026, similar to the prior two cycles. Benjamin Cowen, a prominent defender of the cycle theory, said 'The biggest critics of the Four Year Cycle for Bitcoin will become the biggest cheerleaders of it in a few months.'

Some analysts attribute the weakness in Bitcoin's price to capital rotation from crypto to AI and the Iran conflict. Others point to the outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have resulted in $4.4 billion being pulled out over 13 days.

The long-term charts show that Bitcoin has slipped into historically labeled 'fire sale' territory. However, the drawdown has been relatively orderly, with some analysts attributing it to strong momentum elsewhere. The 200-week moving average of around $62,000 has acted as bear market support since 2015.