Goldman Sachs Cuts 2026 Gold Forecast Amid Delayed Rate Cuts

Goldman Sachs has downgraded its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce, a $500 decrease from its previous estimate of $5,400. The bank cites a delayed Federal Reserve rate cut timeline as the main driver behind this change. According to CME's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a high probability of rates holding steady or rising through the remainder of 2026.

The Fed's current target range is between 3.5% and 3.75%, but Goldman Sachs expects rate cuts in March 2027 and December 2027. This slower path to rate cuts tends to weigh on cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin (BTC), which has fallen approximately 30% since its January highs.

Gold has dropped more than 20% from its January highs and now trades within roughly $150 of the $4,000 level. Analysts warn that both gold and Bitcoin could face further headwinds in 2026 due to rising inflation data and regional tensions.