Bitcoin Bottom Signaled as Short-Term Holders Take Profits and Speculators Avoid Further Losses

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a 'textbook' bear-market bottom as speculators take profits on their way to $65,000. Analysis from Frank, a well-known Bitcoin quant account, argues that short-term holders are taking profits on minor recoveries, which is characteristic of a bull market.

The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) for BTC/USD has returned to the ninth quantile, which marked reversals at the bottom of the 2022 bear market and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. This is a significant indicator that the worst of the price downtrend may be over.

Frank also points out that short-term holders' spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has flipped green, indicating that they are realizing profits. However, CryptoQuant warns that new lows in STH-SOPR could be needed first to confirm a strong bottoming zone.

Doubts remain about speculators avoiding future capitulation, but the current market behavior suggests that the 2026 bear market has little time left to run.