Trump's Iran Deal Announcement Sparks Bitcoin Surge Past $63,600

Bitcoin surged past $63,600 on Thursday after US President Donald Trump announced that a settlement between the US and Iran was imminent. Trump stated that he expected a formal signing to take place 'over the next few days' and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen once the agreement is signed.

The price spike triggered liquidations across derivatives markets, with $361.18 million in positions wiped out over 24 hours. However, this figure is not extraordinary given Bitcoin's recent volatility.

Despite the short-term tailwind from the geopolitical signal, investors remain cautious, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 17, deep in 'extreme fear'. This indicates that markets are pricing in Trump's track record of making sweeping diplomatic claims that later failed to materialize on the announced timeline.

The crypto market's subdued sentiment reading reflects exactly this distinction between a deal announcement and an actual deal. Furthermore, inflation in the US remains elevated, pushing back rate cut expectations throughout 2025. An easing of oil supply constraints could be disinflationary, but this effect is speculative, and the Federal Reserve has shown no willingness to move ahead of confirmed data.