Bitcoin's price recovery is precarious and dependent on a successful peace deal between the US and Iran, according to analysts. Despite reclaiming $67,000, its momentum remains weak, with declining volume and stagnant on-chain metrics indicating that the recovery lacks conviction.
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, notes that if the peace deal breaks down, Bitcoin will face a volatile path due to potential oil shocks and geopolitical instability. The cryptocurrency initially finds bids as a hedge asset before broader risk-off flows push it toward key support zones.
The recent price rise came after US President Donald Trump said the US had completed a peace deal with Iran, expected to be signed on Friday. The deal would see the Strait of Hormuz open and the US lift its blockade of the Strait and of Iran's ports.
Swissblock notes that Bitcoin's price momentum and on-balance volume (OBV) remain in a 'weak momentum and participation regime', with both indicators at bear market lows. Until they flip back into a positive regime, the risk of another retest of the lows remains on the table.