Bitcoin Price Forecast Dropped to $40,000 by AI Model

A recent AI forecast has sparked debate about Bitcoin's potential price trajectory by the end of 2026. The model, known as Grok, predicts that the cryptocurrency could drop to $40,000 in a prolonged bear market scenario. This prediction is based on various factors, including hawkish Fed policy, major contagion events, ETF outflows, and macroeconomic crises.

Grok's forecast spans a wide range of possible outcomes, from a low of $40,000 to a high of $250,000. The base case for the model lands between $75,000 and $150,000, which would mean Bitcoin roughly doubles from current levels or recovers to its October 2025 highs.

Analysts are divided on the likelihood of Grok's bear case scenario. Some consider it a tail risk rather than a base expectation, while others see it as a possible outcome given the current market conditions.