Clarity Act's Passage Uncertain Amid Ethics Provision Tensions

The Clarity Act, a landmark crypto bill in the US Senate, has its passage uncertain due to an ethics provision tied up with President Biden's personal finances.

The bill would classify tokens like XRP, HBAR, and XLM as 'digital commodities' in federal law, aligning them with bitcoin's regulatory treatment and removing SEC enforcement risk. However, the host of a popular crypto channel, Fire Hustle, warns that markets are misreading the vote count.

The Senate needs seven Democrats to reach the 60-vote threshold for passage, but Fire Hustle argues that two Democratic senators who voted 'yes' in committee have not guaranteed their final floor votes. This could mean winning over as many as nine Democrats, not five, to pass the bill.

A Galaxy research study puts the odds of the framework becoming law around 2026 at roughly 75%, with a best-case signing window in early August if political issues are resolved. However, there is still a 25% chance of slippage toward 2027 due to delays and competing drafts.