Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Narrative Revived as $38K Low Looms

Bitcoin's price action this year has revived talk of the four-year cycle narrative. According to NYDIG, the cryptocurrency's current drawdown could be heading toward a low of $38,000-$39,000 by early October.

This assessment is based on historical patterns, as Bitcoin fell almost 50% from its all-time high of $126,000, hitting a new cycle low of $57,700 in July. The previous two major drawdowns lasted for 363 and 376 days before bottoming, with peak-to-trough declines of 84.3% and 77.6%, respectively.

Doctor Profit also predicted that Bitcoin's final low would be between $40,000 and $48,000 around September or October 2026. However, not everyone believes in focusing on the exact timing. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez urged investors not to 'obsess' over the bottom, as periods when BTC traded near its 200-week moving average have consistently turned into strong long-term buying opportunities.