Crypto Forecasts Go Off Track as Prediction Markets Surpass Expectations

21Shares has released its midyear outlook for 2026, revealing that some crypto market forecasts are ahead of schedule while others trail behind. The report compares January expectations with mid-year data and highlights areas that are outperforming or lagging.

The review found that prediction markets are exceeding expectations, with platforms recording $57.5 billion in yearly volume through May - more than 10 times the same period last year. This is ahead of schedule for the target of reaching $100 billion in yearly volume.

On the other hand, stablecoins, ETPs, DeFi, digital asset treasuries, and tokenized assets are behind pace, with targets that now seem distant or unattainable. For example, global crypto ETP assets were expected to surpass $400 billion but have fallen to roughly $140 billion by May.

Regulatory progress and infrastructure development are cited as factors driving the uneven progress across market segments. However, adoption remains slower than anticipated in several areas.