Crypto Markets Trail Behind Stocks Amid Uneven Recovery

The recent rally of global markets has led to a notable divergence in recovery among various assets. Stocks such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have regained their previous all-time highs, but cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to lag behind.

According to an analysis by XWIN Research Japan, the quality of this equity rally is not driven by fundamental improvements in inflation resolution or monetary easing, but rather by a reduction in tail risks. Specifically, easing geopolitical tensions and decreased fears of energy shocks have contributed to the surge in equities.

Liquidity conditions remain tight, with interest rates still elevated. Historically, market flows have followed a sequence: oil → dollar & rates → equities → Bitcoin. Currently, equities are leading this chain as upstream pressures ease, while cryptocurrency prices remain below key resistance.