Warsh's Hawkish Turn Kills Rate-Cut Trade for Crypto

Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve chair has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market, killing off the rate-cut trade that had been a major assumption for crypto bulls. In his debut meeting on June 17, 2026, Warsh held interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, but it was what he did with the Fed's dot plot that really mattered.

The dot plot, which shows where officials expect rates to go, previously projected cuts in March 2026. But now, nine out of eighteen officials project at least one rate hike in 2026, while only one still pencils in a cut. The median projection for the end-of-2026 rate has risen to 3.8% from 3.4% in March.

This shift in projections is a major blow to crypto investors who had been counting on cheap money and easier financial conditions to boost prices. The market reacted swiftly, with most major cryptocurrencies falling between 1% and 3%, led by Bitcoin's slide towards $64,000.