Bitcoin Bull Trap Unleashed: Analyst Predicts 50% Crash to $42,000

Crypto analyst Chiefy warns that Bitcoin's recent price rally to $80,000 is a bull trap, predicting a crash of almost 50% to $42,000.

The analysis centers on a comparison between the current price sequence and the step-by-step decline in the 2022 bear market. The framework identifies a pattern of lower highs and lower lows dressed up as recoveries on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart.

Bitcoin is pressing into the 1-day 200 moving average, a zone that has already acted as resistance during a previous failed recovery attempt in January 2023. The analyst also pointed to the 1-week 200 moving average at the lower support region and the 1-month 350 moving average below it.

The predicted path after the bull trap will see Bitcoin leave $82,000 and then go on a free fall to $50,000, recover to $63,000, and finally crash to $42,000 again. The next move in the sequence would represent a decline of approximately 39% from current levels.

CryptoQuant researchers warned that Bitcoin's apparent demand metric stayed negative throughout April's entire price rally, showing that the late April and early May move was mostly due to higher perpetual futures demand.