Bitcoin's funding rates have been running near minus 4% annualized, a rare setup that points to heavy short positioning. According to James Aitchison, founder and CIO of Caerus Global, this is one of the most bearish signals in years.
However, experts believe that this negative signal could be a bullish indicator for the market. Aitchison pointed out that similar conditions have historically preceded positive returns over 30- to 365-day periods.
The current market structure is being shaped by ETFs, basis trades, and Wall Street distribution, making it increasingly different from the traditional crypto-native signals. Spot bitcoin ETF demand has held through the drawdown, with U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulling in $1.6 billion so far this month.