BTC Investors Face Average 20% Unrealized Loss as Cyclical Pressure Persists

Crypto analyst Darkfost estimates that active Bitcoin (BTC) investors are facing an average unrealized loss of around 20%. This conclusion is based on the 'True Market Mean (TTM)' indicator, which excludes Bitcoins that have not moved for a long time and may be lost or no longer participate in circulation. According to this metric, the current TMM is approximately $76,700, and it has recently served as an important resistance level in the market.

Historically, during market adjustment phases, some investors tend to exit rather than continue holding to avoid larger losses. This price zone becomes a key area for short-term supply and demand competition. Additionally, the 'Active Value to Investor Value Ratio' is around 0.8, indicating a valuation decline range corresponding to roughly a 20% unrealized loss.

While the market shows cyclical patterns, the ongoing inflow of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's overall cyclical nature. Therefore, it remains essential for investors to exercise caution in observing the subsequent trend.