Bitcoin Cost Basis Crossover Triggers Bear Market Hope

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported that Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis has moved below the adjusted long-term holder cost basis. This 'cost basis crossover' is a signal seen near the closing stages of earlier bear markets.

The short-term holder cost basis has dropped from about $112,500 to $69,000 during the downturn, indicating newer holders acquired Bitcoin at lower prices and pulled their average entry level closer to the market price.

However, this does not confirm that Bitcoin has started a new bull market. Instead, it shows a change in the average purchase prices of recent and older holders.

The Federal Reserve's July meeting may now test the recovery, as monetary policy is another key factor. Policymakers will assess inflation, growth, and financial conditions before announcing the rate decision. Bitcoin often reacts to changes in rate expectations and liquidity.