Crypto Analyst Warns of Potential 70% Bitcoin Price Decline in Bear Market

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has provided an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's (BTC) price behavior during a bear market. In his latest podcast, he outlined two distinct scenarios: a 'realistic' one and a more extreme 'doomer' perspective.

The realistic scenario is based on historical cycles and suggests that Bitcoin could decline by around 70% from its peak near $126,000. This drop would be preceded by a temporary pause after a roughly 50% decline, with the final bottom reached later in the cycle. Cowen noted that this drawdown aligns with past corrections of 70% to 80%, which are often accompanied by a weakening macro backdrop, including a late-stage business cycle and possible recession.

On the other hand, the doomer view involves an even more severe and prolonged downturn tied to broader stock market weakness. In this scenario, a 70% decline may not mark the bottom, with Bitcoin potentially falling below key levels such as ETF launch prices. The recovery in such a scenario would be expected to take longer amid an extended recession.

Cowen emphasized that these scenarios are not necessarily base cases but serve as frameworks to understand market risk and psychology. He cautioned investors against dismissing realistic downside as overly pessimistic, warning that they often react emotionally if it unfolds.