Bitcoin's recent price recovery is being closely watched by analysts and investors alike. However, despite reclaiming the $66,000 level, the cryptocurrency's potential for sustained growth may be limited by the growing reserve of coins on major exchanges.
The Bitcoin Exchange Reserve metric, which tracks the total amount of BTC held across major exchanges, has been steadily increasing since January 14. This trend is confirmed by the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin exchange netflows, which has remained positive since February 1.
Netflow Regime Shift Signals Structural Distribution: The transition from -1,187 BTC on January 14 to +628 BTC by February 27 represents more than a short-term fluctuation — it reflects a structural regime shift from accumulation to distribution. Until the SMA(30) decisively flips back into negative territory, exchange-side pressure remains dominant, constraining the market's ability to establish a durable bullish regime.