Deribit Options Contracts Bet Big on $2.5B Rally to $72,000 by August

A large block of Bitcoin options contracts on Deribit, worth $2.5 billion in aggregate gross notional at prevailing prices, is betting big on a rally to $72,000 by August. The positions are tied to the Federal Reserve's next policy decision on July 29.

The exchange's July 31 options board shows more than 20,000 call contracts open at both the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes, representing the largest call concentrations for that expiry. Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot confirmed one large block involved buying 20,000 July 31 calls at $70,000 and selling the same number at $72,000.

The options spread expires two days after the Fed's policy decision, which presents a tactical test for Bitcoin during the final days of July. To reach the $70,000 to $72,000 band, Bitcoin must cover an 8.9% gap and absorb selling around the recent-buyer cost basis.

CryptoSlate's on-chain analysis placed an immediate recent-buyer cost-basis test near $69,000, with Bitcoin below it at the time. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows provide a second check on demand, showing net inflows of $272 million over two weeks.