Bitcoin Price at Risk of Retesting Lower End of Range

Bitcoin's price has been under scrutiny as several on-chain indicators and technical signals suggest significant downside risk in the near future. Analysts are watching for signs of a potential retest of the lower end of its recent range, which could be triggered by macro headwinds and market dynamics.

The production-cost model, developed by Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, estimates that Bitcoin's current price is near its estimated average cost to mine a bitcoin. This has historically been treated as a long-term value area for miners. The model also highlights a lower boundary around $50,120, corresponding to an estimate of the electrical-cost floor.

Additionally, Bitcoin's realized price sits around $53,600, which has historically coincided with the formation of major cycle bottoms when prices move below it. Past bear markets saw substantial drawdowns relative to realized price, underscoring the risk of a deeper capitulation if BTC fails to reclaim higher ground.

The technical setup also remains fragile, with Bitcoin testing the 200-week moving average near $62,000. A weekly close below that level would bolster a bear-case scenario and could target the $50,000 area as a measured move from the flag pattern.