Bitcoin's Structural Bullish Impulse Lost Amid Risk-Off Conditions

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler has warned that Bitcoin has lost its structural bullish impulse and entered a risk-off phase. This means that every bounce in the current environment remains unconfirmed until the on-chain Impulse indicator returns above zero.

The on-chain Impulse indicator measures whether the market's underlying demand structure is in a bullish or bearish configuration, and its fall below zero has historically separated confirmed uptrends from bear market rallies. This indicates that even if Bitcoin experiences price increases, they may not be reliable signals of a structural trend shift.

Adler's macro framework also suggests that the current environment meets the threshold for 'override mode', where macro factors dominate on-chain signals and temporarily suppress their predictive power. This means that even if on-chain data is positive, the market may lose upward momentum until the macro regime shifts.